Understanding the inflation crisis: The importance of a clear narrative

Over the past three years, the global economy has a faced a series of substantial price shocks. The outbreak of Covid-19 in 2020 was followed by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, putting economies around the world under immense strain. This column highlights the importance of understanding the narrative of these shocks for analysing subsequent macroeconomic conditions. Only when policy-makers have got to grips with the economic effects of these episodes will they be able to deliver sufficient policies to support recovery and resilience.

War of attrition: What next for Ukraine?

In February 2022, Vladimir Putin launched a full – scale invasion of Ukraine. As the war grinds on, it is unclear what exactly come s next. According to theory at least, as long as Ukraine continues to receive external support from NATO, the conflict is unlikely to end. Equally, Putin himself is unlikely to make any concessions. As th is devastating and expensive war continues, this column argues that the international community’s best hope might be for an extended ceasefire , rather than true peace.