Short-term financial pressures like delayed paychecks may seem minor at first. But stretched household finances can have profound effects on a family’s wellbeing, potentially leading to physical conflict and violence against women. This column uses data from the United States to explore how temporary income challenges can affect the risk of intimate partner violence. Using a variety of data sources, the analysis suggests that even a few days of heightened budgetary pressure can raise the risk of violent physical abuse, often within a relationship.
Violence against women is a global problem. In many cases around the world aggressive physical behaviour occurs within the household, and this kind of violence is often perpetrated by an intimate partner (such as a husband or boyfriend). In the United States, one in five women report being raped at some point in their lives (the figure is 1.4% for men, for comparison). In half of these cases the person attacking the woman is their partner.
America is particularly dangerous for women in this context. According to the OECD, the United States ranks 5th among its members for the frequency of intimate partner violence (IPV), with over a quarter of women reporting having suffered physical and/or sexual violence from a partner. Women living in the United States are being seriously harmed by people they know very well, often within the confines of their own homes.
Investigating the drivers behind this issue is crucial, given the pervasive consequences of IPV and its significant costs to society. While academic research so far has focused mainly on the impact of large economic shocks (such as job losses and unemployment) on violent crime, less is known about how smaller, short-term monetary disruptions can affect IPV rates. In our recent study, we examine whether financial difficulties caused by delayed paychecks can affect the prevalence of IPV. Our analysis suggests that even brief delays can significantly disrupt family dynamics, increasing the likelihood of violence. In America, a household’s financial woes can quickly escalate into serious physical conflict.
Defining financial distress
Many American households rely on fixed bi-monthly income schedules, with salaries typically paid out on the 15th and the last day of each month. But if these dates fall on a weekend or a public holiday, payments are often shifted to the prior Friday. This adjustment changes the number of days between two consecutive paychecks, forcing families to manage the same amount of income over a longer span, and increasing financial strain.
How does this work in practice? Consider this example based on a 30-day month, where scheduled paydays fall on the 15th and on the 30th. If the 15th happens to be a Sunday, employees receive their paycheck on the preceding Friday (the 13th). This means that the period until the next payday at the end of the month is extended from the usual 15 days to 17 days. This extra 48 hours can be make or break for people living on the edge.
In our study we focus on these ‘financial stretch’ periods as a potential trigger for IPV. Specifically, for each month we identify the number of extra days (i.e., days of stretch) during which a household must manage with the same finances. These episodes may seem minor on their own, but for households already operating on tight budgets, these delays can create substantial emotional stress. The consequences of this intra-household tension should not be underestimated.
Stretch period and physical violence
To examine how these stretches affect IPV, we use data from the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) covering 1995-2019. This allows us to observe women in the United States over a three-year period and provides us with information on whether a woman has been victimised during a given month, and, if so, by whom. By identifying the stretches as previously described, we can assess the impact on IPV by estimating whether the probability of reporting having been a victim of violence by a partner changes as the number of days of stretch increase. This allows us to explore the relationship between financial stress and physical abuse.
The results are striking. Financial stretch increases the likelihood of IPV by about 20% (on average). Households with lower incomes, those with children, and those with more than two members were particularly vulnerable. Our analysis also shows that the impact is most pronounced towards the end of the month, when essential bills such as rent and utilities typically come due.
We also investigate whether it matters whose paycheck gets delayed, and how many household members are affected. We do not find evidence of our effect being driven by those instances where it is either the husband or the woman’s paycheck being delayed. But we do find that the increase in IPV is particularly strong in households where both partners are paid on the same bi-monthly schedule (that is, when the entire household’s income is delayed during a stretch period). This suggests that the impact of financial distress is positively related to the number of financial resources affected and that, in this context, the size and intensity of the shock matter more than its source.
A potential concern with our findings is that we might be capturing the effects of weekends, holidays, or other calendar-related factors, and not (just) of financial stretch itself. For example, holidays could be associated with increased alcohol consumption or more time spent together by spouses, both of which could independently elevate the risk of intra-household violence. Similarly, receiving a paycheck on a Friday might also lead to higher alcohol consumption over the weekend. More broadly, there could be a potential ‘weekend effect’ – where weekends are linked to higher alcohol use or increased time spent together. We conduct several tests to rule out these alternative explanations, all of which confirm that our results are not driven by the coincidence of holidays or weekends.
Evidence of distress
Other data sources help confirm our findings. To corroborate the assumption that household experience difficulties when forced to stretch their finances for longer periods, we draw on the Consumer Expenditure Survey (CEX) and the American Time Use Survey (ATUS). These datasets allow us to explore how financial stretches affect both household spending and time allocation.
The CEX data show that during periods of financial stretch, people reduce their spending by cutting down on non-essential treats such as eating out and leisure activities. This suggests that when faced with extended periods without income, families are forced to prioritise essential expenses such as rent and utilities. Importantly, we find no significant increase in spending on alcohol or tobacco during these periods, countering the idea that increased IPV is driven by higher consumption of substances that could trigger violent behaviour.
Turning to the ATUS data, we find that financial stretches also affect how families use their time. Our analysis shows that during pressure periods, spouses tend to spend more time together, particularly with their children. While increased family time might seem positive at first, in the context of financial strain it can actually increase the potential for conflict as stress levels rise. We also find evidence that women in particular report less sleep during stretch periods, potentially signaling distress.
We also see an increase in the amount of time families devote to shopping around and comparing prices during stretch periods. This fits with the idea that households try to optimise their spending to cope with limited resources. When paychecks are delayed, every cent counts.
Concluding thoughts
IPV is a complex issue with deep-rooted causes. While economic factors are not the only driver of violent behaviour, they play a significant role in exacerbating tensions within households. Our research shows that even small, short-term financial disruptions can have large impacts – a straw that breaks the camel’s back.
These findings underscore the critical role of financial stability in preventing violence within the home. They also suggest that targeted policy interventions aimed at alleviating financial stress could be crucial in reducing IPV. Keeping women safe within their own homes is of the utmost importance, and policies to support income security could well have a large role to play.
Authors: Olivia Masi and Chiara Santantonio