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Charismatic leaders can inspire and mobilise their followers through transformative visions. But when these visions fail to materialise, the consequences can be profound. This column presents evidence from the 1860 Expedition of the Thousand, led by Giuseppe Garibaldi in Southern Italy. At first, his campaign sparked significant enthusiasm for Italian unification. But as Garibaldi’s promises remained unfulfilled, enthusiasm waned, leading to decreased political engagement and a tarnished legacy. These findings suggest that charismatic leadership can be a double-edged sword: the power to inspire often comes with the risk of deep disappointment when expectations are not met.
Charismatic leaders captivate their followers with the promise of a brighter future, often becoming symbols of the transformative aspirations they champion. Figures like Abraham Lincoln, Nelson Mandela and Mahatma Gandhi are celebrated worldwide for their dedication to ideals of freedom, equality and nonviolent resistance. But what happens when these grand visions falter? Do leaders take the blame?
History suggests that people may re-assess a leader’s legacy over time, sometimes casting them as scapegoats for unmet expectations. Recent political developments in South Africa highlight this trend. In May 2024, the African National Congress (ANC), Nelson Mandela’s party, lost its electoral majority for the first time in 30 years. This reflects widespread disillusionment with the ANC, driven by high unemployment, persistent economic inequalities and rampant corruption. Among younger South Africans, there is also growing resentment toward Mandela himself. Some believe that his reconciliation efforts did not go far enough to address enduring economic disparities. Despite his global legacy, many now view his approach as a missed opportunity, where the promise of freedom fell short of delivering economic equity. The stark reality is that white South Africans still control much of the land and earn significantly more than the Black majority, fueling frustration and a reassessment of Mandela’s legacy (The New York Times; CBS News). The road to freedom appears much longer for some than for others.
What does existing research tell us about charismatic leadership?
Charismatic leaders are celebrated for their ability to inspire and unite large groups, often driving significant social and political changes. Studies show that these leaders can shape group identities, rally support and even bring about substantial institutional transformations (Assouad, 2020; Becker et al., 2020; Cagé et al., 2023).
Despite these insights, a gap exists in understanding how leaders’ unmet promises affect their legacies and broader society. This gap is crucial because failing to deliver on grand promises can erode trust in institutions, reshape collective memories and influence future political engagement. In a recent study on Giuseppe Garibaldi’s role in the Italian unification, I shed light on this issue, showing how Garibaldi’s early successes eventually led to widespread disillusionment when his promises went unfulfilled. Over-promising and under-delivering can be toxic for a leader’s legacy.
Garibaldi and the Expedition of the Thousand
Garibaldi’s 1860 Expedition of the Thousand began with great promise. The Bourbon monarchy in Southern Italy was overthrown, and progressive reforms such as land redistribution and the abolition of the grain tax were implemented. During and immediately after the unification of Italy, Garibaldi was worshipped as a hero, gaining significant media attention worldwide and becoming the symbol of the ideals he championed (Riall, 2008). Charismatic leadership was the path to a glorious legacy.
But this dream soon faded. When Garibaldi handed over the conquered territories to King Victor Emmanuel II, the anticipated reforms were not continued. This led to widespread disappointment, particularly in the South. This story offers a lens through which to understand the enduring impacts of unmet expectations on political and social dynamics. When bold promises fail to materialise, the reputational effects can echo through history.
How reliable is the evidence from Garibaldi’s expedition?
In this study, I trace Garibaldi’s route within the ancient provinces of Naples and Terra di Lavoro using historical diaries. Municipalities he passed through were identified as the treated group. Of course, simply comparing these places to those Garibaldi did not visit could be misleading, as his route was strategically chosen, often following major roadways. These municipalities, situated on key roads, might already differ naturally in their economic and cultural integration, potentially influencing national identity and political preferences (Flückiger et al., 2022). So, to isolate the causal effect of Garibaldi’s visits, I exploit a significant deviation in his journey: when King Victor Emmanuel II halted Garibaldi’s march near Teano, preventing him from reaching Rome. This event creates a natural experiment, allowing me to compare the municipalities Garibaldi visited with those he intended to visit but did not, based on their proximity to his planned path.
Figure 1: Tracing Garibaldi’s journey
Source: Author’s calculations
I use historical diaries to determine the locations of Garibaldi’s temporary headquarters and strategic targets, including Rome. Based on the cost of travelling over land (which is related to elevation and road availability), I reconstructed the most efficient route connecting these points. This route, closely reflecting Garibaldi’s intended course, is known as ‘the least-cost path’. The key comparison is between municipalities at similar distances from this path—those that Garibaldi visited versus those he did not—while controlling for pre-unification characteristics and geographical factors. This approach allows me to isolate the influence of Garibaldi’s visits from other factors that might have shaped national identity and political participation, offering an indication of his influence as a leader.
What does this research tell us?
The results are striking. Initially, Garibaldi’s visits served as a powerful catalyst for change, reducing instances of brigandage (insurgency movement characterised by acts of violence originating from discontent due to the new policies) by 44 percentage points. This provides evidence that his charisma helped to captivate and mobilise people, reducing acts of violent resistance against the central authority. But the data show that this early enthusiasm faded over time. By the 1913 elections, the first under universal male suffrage, Garibaldi’s visits were associated with a five percentage point drop in voter turnout (a 12% decline from the baseline mean). This implies a drastic fall in mobilisation associated with Garibaldi’s previous presence.
This shift from strong support to disillusionment is critical. It reflects not only a decline in national identity and political engagement, but also a growing disenchantment with Garibaldi himself. In 1866, Garibaldi formed an army of volunteers to liberate northern territories during the Third War of Independence. Yet, remarkably, his visits decreased the rate of volunteers by around 100% of the baseline mean. This disillusionment persisted even later, evident in the 1948 elections when the Fronte Democratico Popolare, a communist and socialist coalition, used Garibaldi’s image to drum up support during their campaign. Garibaldi’s visits reduced political support for the coalition by 33% of the baseline mean, highlighting a lasting negative shift in his legacy.
Anecdotal evidence from Garibaldi himself underscores this dramatic reversal in public sentiment. In a letter to Adelaide Cairoli in 1868, he expressed shock at how quickly people in the South turned against him. Those who had once welcomed him as a liberator were now cursing him to the point where he feared returning to the southern regions, anticipating hostility from those who saw him as complicit in the oppressive conditions imposed by the new political regime. This stark reversal illustrates how unmet promises can have a profound effect not only on political engagement but also with regards to the personal legacy of charismatic leaders. Letting those who trusted you down can mean political ruin.
What do these findings mean for leadership today?
This study offers a critical insight for modern leaders. While charisma can be effective for rallying support, it also creates high expectations. The resulting disillusionment can be profound when these expectations are not met, even for reasons beyond the leader’s control. Garibaldi’s experience exemplifies this. Despite his symbolic status as the unifier of Italy, the unfulfilled promises, largely due to decisions made by King Victor Emmanuel II, led to widespread disillusionment. Being the face of a movement carries risks.
So, understanding the double-edged nature of charismatic leadership deepens our comprehension of how successful leaders are perceived and the legacies they leave behind. While these leaders become symbols of grand visions, they also risk becoming scapegoats for broader failures even beyond their direct responsibility. It is unwise to make promises you cannot keep.
Author: Andrea Tizzani